Headline Figures ITV Wales YouGov September Poll

Welsh Assembly Constituency Result

Welsh Labour            44% (+5)
Welsh Conservatives  22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru               19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems         11% (+1)
Others                         5% (-3)

Welsh Assembly Regional Result

Welsh Labour               41% (+2)
Welsh Conservatives     20% (-1)
Plaid Cymru                 19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems           12% (+3)
Others                           8% (no change)

Poll of 1,088 people with fieldwork taking place between the 27/9/2010 and 29/9/2010.

Assembly Members

On a Uniform National Swing this gives:

Labour              30 seats
Conservatives    12 seats
Plaid Cymru      11 seats
Lib Dems           7 seats
Others               0 seats

September ITV Wales You Gov Poll

Well the poll is most definitely coming out today and I have just had a tip off from a very happy member of  Welsh Labour.  Full results yet to arrive but it does appear that the bounce following Labour's conference is replicated in Wales. 

A word of caution though.  Post conference polls invariably show a boost to the respective party.  Labour in Wales appear to have been lucky with the timing of this poll.  Will things return to 'normal' next month?

This page will be updated when we get the full results and details of Plaid Cymru, Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Lib Dems.

September ITV / You Gov Poll

Next ITV Wales / You Gov poll expected this week.  I am reliably informed that field work (ok, well online survey) has been in circulation this week.  Once results are announced we will put them up here. Big question must be has the bounce for Labour in the UK polls been replicated in Wales?

Predictor

We've finally sorted out some bugs with the predictor.

Please feel free to download a copy by clicking the link

You'll need a copy of Excel 97 or better to run it.

Please let us know what you think.

Methodology

The predictor on this blog uses Uniform National Swing (UNS) and an option to use Uniform Regional Swing (URS).

UNS is the simplest model of applying opinion poll results to the results of the last election and estimating what impact movements in public opinion have if an election was held tomorrow.  URS follows the same principle as UNS but works at Assembly Regional level - ie the South West, the North etc

Put simply:

1. UNS says that if a party is up 3% nationally, that it will be up 3% in each seat.
2. URS says that if a party is up 3% in a specific region, then it will be up 3% in each seat in that region.

As the National Assembly uses a regional top up system we have been able to offer two methods of entering data:

1. the percentage of the national constituency vote and the percentage of the national regional vote.
2. the percentage of the constituency vote insode a specific region and the percentage of the regional vote insode a specific region.

These options allow for much more accuracy in terms of regional support for specific parties and also allow for some interesting predictions using the regional breakdowns behind the ITV / You Gov monthly opinion poll (NOTE regional opinion polls have a higher error of margin than the national one).

If you do not enter figures for all regions the default will be taken from the national regional prediction - buit where you do enter data this will over ride the national figure.
A similar predictor to the one found here can be seen at Electoral Calculas UK which has a good record of predicting UK elections - although fails to take account of changes in support of Plaid Cymru and so is of limited use for Welsh politics.