In a few weeks the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election will take place. This is important not just because it is the first post GE test but also it will let us know how easy it is for the coalition parties to persuade their supporters to vote tactically for their coalition partner. Cameron has made it well known that he wants his supporters to tactically vote Lib Dem and the gossip on Conservative Home is that the support has not been their from Central Office for the Conservative campaign.
More than that a Tory minister has today in the Telegraph been talking about putting up joint "coalition" candidates at the next election.
So I thought it might be interesting to wonder what kind of agreements might be achieved in Wales at the Assembly election.
Firstly in Cardiff I have no doubt that any Tories in Cardiff central will head up to Cardiff north and all of the Lib efforts will be concentrated on Cardiff Central. This is just common sense.
The more interesting battle will be what happens in Powys. In terms of new seats the only possible gains for the Conservatives on current polling are Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnor (though the Vale of Glam might be interesting). Will Tory HQ allow the Welsh Conservatives to taget these seats? I'm certain that Glyn Davies will be doing all he can to help the Tories win in Montgomeryshire and with the antics of both Lembit and Mick there is a definite opportunity here. My guess is that the tactical Plaid and Labour votes will return home (instead of tactically voting Lib Dems) so this seat is really up for grabs.
Less obvious but more interesting is Brecon and Radnor.
2007 Result
Kirsty Williams (LD) 15,006 - 52.2%
Suzy Davies (Con) 9,652 - 33.6%
Neil Stone (Lab) 2,514 - 8.7%
Arwel Lloyd (PC) 1,576 - 5.5%
Despite the 20% majority I still think this seat is winnable for the Tories. The main reason for this is the fact that in 2007 the Tories won the regional vote (though I can't find the figures for this, if someone can confirm I'd appreciate it).
The truth is that the Libs in Brecon and Radnor have been very good at targeting PC and more importantly Labour voters to vote tactically for them. Traditionally this is a very strong seat for Labour, they came within 600 votes of winning the by-election in 1985, but Kirsty and Roger Williams have been able to persuade these voters to tactically switch. Places like Ystradgynlais will not be backing a "Con-Dem" candidate this time and I am very confident that the Labour candidate will get over 15% of the poll.
The question is, will Tory HQ allow a Tory candidate to unseat the Welsh Lib Dem Leader? My guess is that Clegg will ask a favour of Cameron and not a single penny will go from central office to the B&R campaign.
If anyone has any local info on how the Tories are fightin this seat it would be interesting.
Sunday 26 December 2010
Friday 24 December 2010
Ipsos Mori regional monitor
Apologies that I missed this when it first came out. Ipsos have re-weighed all of their polls from June to November and then produced regional breakdowns of westminster voting intentions.
The Welsh result was (change from 2010 Westminster result)
Con 22% (-4%)
Lab 40% (+4%)
Lib 14% (-6%)
PC 16% (+5%)
It needs to be remembered that most of the polls in this were before Lib Dem support really hit the rocks in November but it gives a good idea of how quickly Labour recovered. It's unlikely we will see another Westminster election for a few years and when we do it should be on new boundaries so it is impossible to make any seat predictions until we get those new boundaries.
The Welsh result was (change from 2010 Westminster result)
Con 22% (-4%)
Lab 40% (+4%)
Lib 14% (-6%)
PC 16% (+5%)
It needs to be remembered that most of the polls in this were before Lib Dem support really hit the rocks in November but it gives a good idea of how quickly Labour recovered. It's unlikely we will see another Westminster election for a few years and when we do it should be on new boundaries so it is impossible to make any seat predictions until we get those new boundaries.
Wednesday 22 December 2010
Yougov December Poll
Lib Dems must be panicking now with the latest yougov figures for them falling off a cliff.
Constituency December poll (change since November)
Lab 44% (nc)
PC 21% (nc)
Con 23% (+2)
Lib 6% (-3)
Other 6% (nc)
Regional December poll (change since November)
Lab 42% (+1)
PC 21% (+1)
Con 22% (+2)
Lib 5% (-4)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Put into our predictor this has Labour 30, Plaid 13, Tory 15, Lib Dems 2. Unfortunately the predictor does not treat UKIP as an equal party to the others so this will need editing. Also their are problems with using a uniform swing when a parties vote is so varied across a region. On these ratings the Libs will struggle to hold more than one seat (either Brecon and radnor or the M&W list seat).
To put into context how awful things are for Kirsty Williams only in 1 of the 5 regions (Mid and West) did the Lib Dems come 4th!
In South Wales Central they were 5th behind the greens. In the South East, north and south West they were 5th behind UKIP. To make matters even worse in the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%).
All in all they are in an incredibly poor position. I have always thought that 6 seats was the floor that it was impossible for the Libs to drop beneath. This poll completely blows that theory away.
Of course this is only one poll but if this is anywhere close to reality the Lib Dems will need to run a truly amazing campaign next year.
They also asked their usual referendum question. The result is
Yes: 46% (-2)
No 25% (-5)
Don't know / won't vote 29% (+7)
This is still good news for the yes campaign.
Update: tables available here
Constituency December poll (change since November)
Lab 44% (nc)
PC 21% (nc)
Con 23% (+2)
Lib 6% (-3)
Other 6% (nc)
Regional December poll (change since November)
Lab 42% (+1)
PC 21% (+1)
Con 22% (+2)
Lib 5% (-4)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Put into our predictor this has Labour 30, Plaid 13, Tory 15, Lib Dems 2. Unfortunately the predictor does not treat UKIP as an equal party to the others so this will need editing. Also their are problems with using a uniform swing when a parties vote is so varied across a region. On these ratings the Libs will struggle to hold more than one seat (either Brecon and radnor or the M&W list seat).
To put into context how awful things are for Kirsty Williams only in 1 of the 5 regions (Mid and West) did the Lib Dems come 4th!
In South Wales Central they were 5th behind the greens. In the South East, north and south West they were 5th behind UKIP. To make matters even worse in the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%).
All in all they are in an incredibly poor position. I have always thought that 6 seats was the floor that it was impossible for the Libs to drop beneath. This poll completely blows that theory away.
Of course this is only one poll but if this is anywhere close to reality the Lib Dems will need to run a truly amazing campaign next year.
They also asked their usual referendum question. The result is
Yes: 46% (-2)
No 25% (-5)
Don't know / won't vote 29% (+7)
This is still good news for the yes campaign.
Update: tables available here
Wednesday 1 December 2010
2011 Assembly Referendum - BBC Wales / ICM Poll
The BBC today published an ICM Poll on a number of subjects including voting preference on further powers for the National Assembly for Wales Referendum due to be held in March 2011.
The headline figures are:
In favour of further powers: 57%
Against further powres: 24%
Don't know: 18%
They also asked a likelyhood to vote question and the figures based on those certain to vote are:
In favour of further powers: 77%
Against further powers: 23%
The BBC Wales report can be found here:
UPDATE
Here is the link to the full tables on ICM website.
The headline figures are:
In favour of further powers: 57%
Against further powres: 24%
Don't know: 18%
They also asked a likelyhood to vote question and the figures based on those certain to vote are:
In favour of further powers: 77%
Against further powers: 23%
The BBC Wales report can be found here:
UPDATE
Here is the link to the full tables on ICM website.
Tuesday 30 November 2010
Mori Scottish poll
I've been away from the computer for a few days and have therefore missed quite a few polls. In general Labour seem to be doing very well despite the attacks on David Milliband. The Liberal Democrats are still having a very bad time of it. Yougov are consistently showing them between 11% and 9% and the over pollsters are starting to follow suit with Com Res today showing them at 12% (the lowest they've had since the election).
Elsewhere Mori had a poll from Scotland which showed
Constituency (2007 result)
Labour 41% (32.2%)
SNP 31% (32.9%)
Tory 13% (16.6%)
Lib Dem 11% (16.2%)
Regional
Labour 36% (29.2%)
SNP 32%(31.0%)
Tory 12%(13.9%)
Lib Dem 9%(11.3%)
Fundamentally Labour have taken a bit from the SNP but the main losers are the Lib Dems who are in serious trouble.
Seems like things are looking good for Labour in Wales and Scotland.
Elsewhere Mori had a poll from Scotland which showed
Constituency (2007 result)
Labour 41% (32.2%)
SNP 31% (32.9%)
Tory 13% (16.6%)
Lib Dem 11% (16.2%)
Regional
Labour 36% (29.2%)
SNP 32%(31.0%)
Tory 12%(13.9%)
Lib Dem 9%(11.3%)
Fundamentally Labour have taken a bit from the SNP but the main losers are the Lib Dems who are in serious trouble.
Seems like things are looking good for Labour in Wales and Scotland.
Thursday 25 November 2010
ITV Yougov analysis
Firstly I just want to make clear how thankful I am that ITV Wales is paying thousands of pounds to commission opinion polls in Wales. Without them we would have no information at all on what Welsh voters think.
But how are they working out their predicted AMs?
Last night ITV predicted that these yougov figures would deliver
Labour 28
Plaid 13
Tory 13
Lib Dem 6
I'm sorry but I simply can't agree with this. In 2007 the Lib Dems got 15% in constituencies and 12% in regions. Now they are on 9% in both.
To get a list seat in the North the Lib Dems needed a minimum of 6.4%. In 2007 they got 7.8%. Since they are now 3% down on what they got in 2007 that puts them on 4.8%. I haven't seen the local breakdown yet but last time they were doing even worse than the national swing in the north. They are also in a similar problem in the South East (though not quite so desperate).
I just can't see how this poll puts them on 6 seats.
update
the poll figures are available here
Things to note are that the Lib dems are on 6% in the north and 4% in South East. This is in line with them losing at least one of the seats. (Although these regional samples are small, unweighted and vary an awful lot).
Also worth noting that the Greens are up to 10% in SWC and the Lib Dems are only getting 6% in the Mid and West constituencies. Obviously this is all on very small samples but is worth keeping an eye on.
But how are they working out their predicted AMs?
Last night ITV predicted that these yougov figures would deliver
Labour 28
Plaid 13
Tory 13
Lib Dem 6
I'm sorry but I simply can't agree with this. In 2007 the Lib Dems got 15% in constituencies and 12% in regions. Now they are on 9% in both.
To get a list seat in the North the Lib Dems needed a minimum of 6.4%. In 2007 they got 7.8%. Since they are now 3% down on what they got in 2007 that puts them on 4.8%. I haven't seen the local breakdown yet but last time they were doing even worse than the national swing in the north. They are also in a similar problem in the South East (though not quite so desperate).
I just can't see how this poll puts them on 6 seats.
update
the poll figures are available here
Things to note are that the Lib dems are on 6% in the north and 4% in South East. This is in line with them losing at least one of the seats. (Although these regional samples are small, unweighted and vary an awful lot).
Also worth noting that the Greens are up to 10% in SWC and the Lib Dems are only getting 6% in the Mid and West constituencies. Obviously this is all on very small samples but is worth keeping an eye on.
Wednesday 24 November 2010
Yougov November ITV Poll
Yougov Figures are
Constituency
Labour 44%
Plaid 21%
Tory 21%
Lib Dem 9%
Other 6%
Regional
Labour 41%
Plaid 20%
Tory 20%
Lib Dem 9%
Ukip 4%
Our predictor puts it at
Labour 29 seats
Plaid 14
Tory 13
Lib Dems 4
Good for Labour, Ok for Plaid and Tories, disaster for the Lib Dems.
Update
I've updated the graphs and predictor with the new figures.
Constituency
Labour 44%
Plaid 21%
Tory 21%
Lib Dem 9%
Other 6%
Regional
Labour 41%
Plaid 20%
Tory 20%
Lib Dem 9%
Ukip 4%
Our predictor puts it at
Labour 29 seats
Plaid 14
Tory 13
Lib Dems 4
Good for Labour, Ok for Plaid and Tories, disaster for the Lib Dems.
Update
I've updated the graphs and predictor with the new figures.
Tuesday 23 November 2010
Yougov Wales poll tomorrow
We're already at that time of the month when another Welsh Yougov poll is on its way (as long as their keeping to the last wed of the month system). Its amazing how exciting I still find these but the novelty definitely hasn't worn off yet. ITV Wales really deserve our thanks for commisioning these polls.
Out of interest here is how ICM and Yougov's UK polls have changed this month
ICM 21st November compared with ICM 24th October
Labour 38% (+2%)
Conservative 36% (-3%)
Lib Dem 14% (-2%)
Yougov 22nd of November compared with 21st of October
Labour 38% (+2%)
Conservative 41% (no change)
Lib Dem 11% (+1%)
All in all there's not much change this month in the UK so no reason to expect any massive changes in Wales...
Out of interest here is how ICM and Yougov's UK polls have changed this month
ICM 21st November compared with ICM 24th October
Labour 38% (+2%)
Conservative 36% (-3%)
Lib Dem 14% (-2%)
Yougov 22nd of November compared with 21st of October
Labour 38% (+2%)
Conservative 41% (no change)
Lib Dem 11% (+1%)
All in all there's not much change this month in the UK so no reason to expect any massive changes in Wales...
Monday 22 November 2010
Irish polling
After hearing today's latest headlines I thought I'd have a look at Irish opinion polls again. There are two issues at stake here. The first is the Donegal South West By-election which takes place on Wednesday. The press association is calling this for Sinn Fein after a 500 person survey conducted by Red C (on Behalf of bookmakers Paddy Power). This is FF heartland so a bad loss here will be extremely traumatic for the party.
The same pollsters have also produced a poll for tomorrows papers with the latest Eire wide figures of
Fianna Fáil 17% (41.6% last time)
Fine Gael 33% (27.3%)
Labour 27% (10.1%)
Greens 3% (4.7%)
Sinn Féin 11% (6.9%)
If the election is held in the next few months we will see the end of an intire political class in Ireland as the largest party in the countries history is dumped into a miserable third place fight with Sinn Fein.
Interesting times...
The same pollsters have also produced a poll for tomorrows papers with the latest Eire wide figures of
Fianna Fáil 17% (41.6% last time)
Fine Gael 33% (27.3%)
Labour 27% (10.1%)
Greens 3% (4.7%)
Sinn Féin 11% (6.9%)
If the election is held in the next few months we will see the end of an intire political class in Ireland as the largest party in the countries history is dumped into a miserable third place fight with Sinn Fein.
Interesting times...
Yougov Polls
I've added a page with the most up to date figures from Yougov. Hopefully they'll be of some use.
Sunday 21 November 2010
Stats Rant continued
This is probably very boring to nearly everyone reading this but having another look at the employment statistics I noticed a great graph
This shows the 95% confidence levels for employment in Wales since Jul-Sep 2008.
Below I've coloured in the area of the graph that has always been within the confidence levels.
What this means is that it is well within the realms of probability that employment in Wales has been at a constant of anything between 67% and 68.5%. It is quite likely that it hasn't changed at all and if it has changed there is no way for us to know if it has gone up or down. These figures are based on relatively small samples (when you get down to the "regional" level) and there accuracy is not great.
During this time though the BBC has announced:
31,000 fewer Welsh jobs available
Unemployment in Wales falls to lowest level in a year
Unemployment total drops by 2,000 in Wales
Unemployment in Wales rises to 125,000
Unemployment falls only in Wales
Not one report mentions the massive innacuracy of the figures they are quoting and reports the "rise" or "fall" as being an accurate picture of what's happening in Wales.
I am not trying to have a go simply at thee beeb. On the whole thier news coverage of Wales is considerably better than anyone else. But surely they have someone with enough of a grasp of figures to do better reports than this. It is pretty lazy journalism.
This shows the 95% confidence levels for employment in Wales since Jul-Sep 2008.
Below I've coloured in the area of the graph that has always been within the confidence levels.
What this means is that it is well within the realms of probability that employment in Wales has been at a constant of anything between 67% and 68.5%. It is quite likely that it hasn't changed at all and if it has changed there is no way for us to know if it has gone up or down. These figures are based on relatively small samples (when you get down to the "regional" level) and there accuracy is not great.
During this time though the BBC has announced:
31,000 fewer Welsh jobs available
Unemployment in Wales falls to lowest level in a year
Unemployment total drops by 2,000 in Wales
Unemployment in Wales rises to 125,000
Unemployment falls only in Wales
Not one report mentions the massive innacuracy of the figures they are quoting and reports the "rise" or "fall" as being an accurate picture of what's happening in Wales.
I am not trying to have a go simply at thee beeb. On the whole thier news coverage of Wales is considerably better than anyone else. But surely they have someone with enough of a grasp of figures to do better reports than this. It is pretty lazy journalism.
Wednesday 17 November 2010
Bad-Stats Rant
Just read Betsan Powys's blog and realised quite how misleading and annoying stats reporting is in Wales.
Betsan is looking at various politicians responses to the "drop" in unemployment. This seems to make sense. The figures clearly say that there are 12,000 less people unemployed in Wales. Everyone rejoice at these amazing cuts. Depending on your affiliation either the Con-Dem cuts are working or One Wales is delivering despite London's efforts.
What no one looks at is page 8 of the statistics which clearly say how accurate these figures are. The truth is that the change in Unemployment is anything between a drop of 35,000 or an increase of 10,000. And there's a 5% chance that the change could be better than a 35,000 drop or worse than a 10,000 increase.
Every month we get these same stories (Wales does worse than the rest of UK. First Minister welcomes Unemployment drop. Wales failing as unemployment rises). But the truth is that all of these stories are b******t. There based on figures that simply aren't accurate to the level there being reported. If even the BBC don't understand this then we have a serious problem.
Betsan is looking at various politicians responses to the "drop" in unemployment. This seems to make sense. The figures clearly say that there are 12,000 less people unemployed in Wales. Everyone rejoice at these amazing cuts. Depending on your affiliation either the Con-Dem cuts are working or One Wales is delivering despite London's efforts.
What no one looks at is page 8 of the statistics which clearly say how accurate these figures are. The truth is that the change in Unemployment is anything between a drop of 35,000 or an increase of 10,000. And there's a 5% chance that the change could be better than a 35,000 drop or worse than a 10,000 increase.
Every month we get these same stories (Wales does worse than the rest of UK. First Minister welcomes Unemployment drop. Wales failing as unemployment rises). But the truth is that all of these stories are b******t. There based on figures that simply aren't accurate to the level there being reported. If even the BBC don't understand this then we have a serious problem.
Across the Irish sea
Today's news on the Republic's financial woes led me to have a look what the polling figures are like there at the moment.
A quick search led to this poll by Millward Brown Lansdowne
The Topline figures are (2007 results in brackets)
Fianna Fail 22% (41.6%)
Fine Gael 30% (27.3%)
Labour 35% (10.1%)
Green Party 2% (4.7%)
Sinn Fein 4% (6.9%)
Independents/Others 8% (7%)
The main story is how the Labour party has gone from the also ran party to a clear lead. This could really be the end of Fianna Fail/Fine Gael dominance in Dublin. It also goes to show that in turbulent times party fortunes can change incredibly quickly.
A quick search led to this poll by Millward Brown Lansdowne
The Topline figures are (2007 results in brackets)
Fianna Fail 22% (41.6%)
Fine Gael 30% (27.3%)
Labour 35% (10.1%)
Green Party 2% (4.7%)
Sinn Fein 4% (6.9%)
Independents/Others 8% (7%)
The main story is how the Labour party has gone from the also ran party to a clear lead. This could really be the end of Fianna Fail/Fine Gael dominance in Dublin. It also goes to show that in turbulent times party fortunes can change incredibly quickly.
Yougov UK
Yougov has announced a 5% lead for Labour in the UK polls (C37%,Lab42%,LD10%). This is their biggest lead for Labour in a long time. When the last ITV Yougov poll of Wales was taken the Tories were still ahead at a UK level (C40%,L38%,LD12%). That means a change on the month of C-3%, L+4%, LD-2%.
Now these are nearly all within the margin of error, but Labour definitely seem to be dong better than they were a month ago. Labour could realistically be doing even better than the Constituency 44%, Regional 40% that they had last month.
Now these are nearly all within the margin of error, but Labour definitely seem to be dong better than they were a month ago. Labour could realistically be doing even better than the Constituency 44%, Regional 40% that they had last month.
Tuesday 16 November 2010
Labour list poll of members
Ask and it shall be delivered...
Thanks to Ryan for providing a link to LabourList's survey of members.
Firstly a couple of health warnings, 1st I don't know how big this sample is and 2nd like with the Lib Dem Voice these people are only representative of hardcore activists.
But there are two or three interesting findings. The first is that a plurality (42% to 33%) will vote against AV. This is probably a hint that Labour will play absoloutely no part in the Yes campaign. Secondly these activists seem to favour a primary system. This is counterintuative as most activists tend to prefer a system where members pick candidates. Finally Peter Hain beats the magic "50% know who I am" test but only by 3%. The only Labour politician getting a negative rating is Shaun Woodwood. This is probably becuase Labour List are the most die-hard and tribalist Labour supporters and Shaun Woodwood is a famous defector. Never forget and never forgive...
Thanks to Ryan for providing a link to LabourList's survey of members.
Firstly a couple of health warnings, 1st I don't know how big this sample is and 2nd like with the Lib Dem Voice these people are only representative of hardcore activists.
But there are two or three interesting findings. The first is that a plurality (42% to 33%) will vote against AV. This is probably a hint that Labour will play absoloutely no part in the Yes campaign. Secondly these activists seem to favour a primary system. This is counterintuative as most activists tend to prefer a system where members pick candidates. Finally Peter Hain beats the magic "50% know who I am" test but only by 3%. The only Labour politician getting a negative rating is Shaun Woodwood. This is probably becuase Labour List are the most die-hard and tribalist Labour supporters and Shaun Woodwood is a famous defector. Never forget and never forgive...
Lib Dem Poll of members
Just seen this interesting link on Freedom Central to a poll of Lib Dem members.
It seems that amongst Lib Dems Kirsty has a rating of +27%
below are Kirsty's results in full (no other Welsh Lib made the list).
Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Very effective 12%
Quite effective 24%
Quite ineffective 7%
Very ineffective 2%
Don’t know / No opinion 55%
Net effectiveness +27% (+18%)
You may notice that 55% of the Lib Dem Voice members only forum (the Libs Praetorian Guard of activists) don't seem to know who Kirsty is (or at least don't have an opinion on her).
This makes her slightly more well known than Alistair Carmichael, Deputy Chief Whip to the House of Commons (65% don't know) but less well known than Andrew Stunell, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State to the Department for Communities and Local Government (39%) or Paul Burstow, Minister of State for the Department of Health(45%).
I'm sure by next month she'll cross that psychological "50% of key activists know who I am" barrier. I will keep everyone updated.
PS I'd like to apologise to any Lib Dems readers. I don't mean to pick on you and will happily have a go at any other party who openly publish polls of members. It just seems that your the only people who are as obsessive as us about polling and stats.
It seems that amongst Lib Dems Kirsty has a rating of +27%
below are Kirsty's results in full (no other Welsh Lib made the list).
Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Very effective 12%
Quite effective 24%
Quite ineffective 7%
Very ineffective 2%
Don’t know / No opinion 55%
Net effectiveness +27% (+18%)
You may notice that 55% of the Lib Dem Voice members only forum (the Libs Praetorian Guard of activists) don't seem to know who Kirsty is (or at least don't have an opinion on her).
This makes her slightly more well known than Alistair Carmichael, Deputy Chief Whip to the House of Commons (65% don't know) but less well known than Andrew Stunell, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State to the Department for Communities and Local Government (39%) or Paul Burstow, Minister of State for the Department of Health(45%).
I'm sure by next month she'll cross that psychological "50% of key activists know who I am" barrier. I will keep everyone updated.
PS I'd like to apologise to any Lib Dems readers. I don't mean to pick on you and will happily have a go at any other party who openly publish polls of members. It just seems that your the only people who are as obsessive as us about polling and stats.
Sunday 14 November 2010
Wales on Sunday poll
There's a new poll in the Wales on Sunday today which is looking at peoples reaction to the budget cuts. Its an interesting read.
The main findings seem to be that people want to see education and health spending spared with sport and art taking more of a hit. With the Welsh draft budget expected soon this is reinforcing the idea that protecting "core" services is likely to be a very important factor.
Its also interesting to see that people seem to trust the Welsh Assembly Government to cut fairly. I think there is a growing perception that Labour/Plaid is fairer than Tories/Lib Dems. Looking forward to see if this is reflected in more Welsh polls.
The main findings seem to be that people want to see education and health spending spared with sport and art taking more of a hit. With the Welsh draft budget expected soon this is reinforcing the idea that protecting "core" services is likely to be a very important factor.
Its also interesting to see that people seem to trust the Welsh Assembly Government to cut fairly. I think there is a growing perception that Labour/Plaid is fairer than Tories/Lib Dems. Looking forward to see if this is reflected in more Welsh polls.
Another bad yougov poll for the libs
The Lib Dems for the second day running are on 10% with yougov. I really think that they have been hit hard by last weeks protests and still expect them to be in single figures sometime this week.
Mike Smithson has a really good article on Nick Clegg's position. The question Nick has to answer is "what difference have the Lib Dems actually made to Tory policy?". If they can get a good answer to this I think they will be fine. If they can't things look very bad, especially for the 2011 and 2012 election.
Mike Smithson has a really good article on Nick Clegg's position. The question Nick has to answer is "what difference have the Lib Dems actually made to Tory policy?". If they can get a good answer to this I think they will be fine. If they can't things look very bad, especially for the 2011 and 2012 election.
Friday 12 November 2010
Predictor goes LIVE
I have finally worked out how to embed our predictor into a webpage so now by simply clicking here or on the tab above you can make predictions on how the Welsh election will turn out. It's not quite electoral calculus yet, but hopefully we're on our way.
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
S4C yougov poll
The S4C figures are now up on yougov's site and have some pretty interesting findings.
Firstly as the earlier news reports made clear, there is serious ground for concern for S4C continuing as a Welsh language only channel. Even Plaid voters came out in favour of the channel shoiwng English Language programming (40% to 34%) whilst Labour supporters strongly agreed (57% to 16%). Personally I think that a bilingual channel would be very impractical and would be bad for the language, but expect Chris Bryant to be jumping up and down with these figures over the next few years.
Secondly I find the lingusitic breakdown of support quite interesting. Despite their poor performance in West Wales more Welsh speakers support Labour than Plaid (42% - 30%). This is a Westminster poll but still the idea that Welsh speakers all vote for Plaid is simply not true.
Firstly as the earlier news reports made clear, there is serious ground for concern for S4C continuing as a Welsh language only channel. Even Plaid voters came out in favour of the channel shoiwng English Language programming (40% to 34%) whilst Labour supporters strongly agreed (57% to 16%). Personally I think that a bilingual channel would be very impractical and would be bad for the language, but expect Chris Bryant to be jumping up and down with these figures over the next few years.
Secondly I find the lingusitic breakdown of support quite interesting. Despite their poor performance in West Wales more Welsh speakers support Labour than Plaid (42% - 30%). This is a Westminster poll but still the idea that Welsh speakers all vote for Plaid is simply not true.
Thursday 11 November 2010
How will yesterday effect the polls?
The new Yougov daily polling means that we can get an idea of how the news impacts opinion within 48hrs of an event. Therefore tomorrow morning we will probably find out what effect yesterday's protests (and riot) have had on the polls.
There will hardly be anyone left in the country who doesn't know about the Lib Dem U-turn on tuition fees and they will definitely have lost their USP of being the "nice" party. Their vote amongst students will obviously have been hit hard. On the other hand people don't like riots and disorder and that could definitely benefit Clegg. Also he's had a lot of coverage and that usually helps. My personal guess is that we will see the Lib-Dem below 10% again at least once by the end of next week. But then again my predictions are notoriously bad.
There will hardly be anyone left in the country who doesn't know about the Lib Dem U-turn on tuition fees and they will definitely have lost their USP of being the "nice" party. Their vote amongst students will obviously have been hit hard. On the other hand people don't like riots and disorder and that could definitely benefit Clegg. Also he's had a lot of coverage and that usually helps. My personal guess is that we will see the Lib-Dem below 10% again at least once by the end of next week. But then again my predictions are notoriously bad.
Wednesday 10 November 2010
Yougov Woolas and immigration
I'm a bit late blogging on this but Yougov had a very interesting poll on Woolas and Immigration
The first finding is that everyone agrees that Woolas had to go. Even 65% of Labour supporters wanted rid of him. The Labour backbenches really need to let this go.
Secondly I was really interested to see the responses on controlled immigration. The survey asked if people thought different occupations should be exempt from an immigration ban.
What was interesting was that only 21% thought there should be no exemptions. And this figure was pretty much the same amongst the well off (ABC1 21%) less well off (C2DE 22%), Young (18-24 24%), Older (60+ 18%), Tories (20%), Labour (20%), Lib Dems (15%). There's something reassuring that the number of people who don't like foreignes is so low and it's interesting to see that these people are mixed amongst every single part of society.
The first finding is that everyone agrees that Woolas had to go. Even 65% of Labour supporters wanted rid of him. The Labour backbenches really need to let this go.
Secondly I was really interested to see the responses on controlled immigration. The survey asked if people thought different occupations should be exempt from an immigration ban.
What was interesting was that only 21% thought there should be no exemptions. And this figure was pretty much the same amongst the well off (ABC1 21%) less well off (C2DE 22%), Young (18-24 24%), Older (60+ 18%), Tories (20%), Labour (20%), Lib Dems (15%). There's something reassuring that the number of people who don't like foreignes is so low and it's interesting to see that these people are mixed amongst every single part of society.
Monday 8 November 2010
S4C Yougov poll finally revealed
I was not lying, ITV Wales / Yougov did ask about attitudes to s4c and their findings will be on Byd ar Bedwar tonight with an article by Martin Shipton in todays Western Mail.
Basically it does not look good for the defenders of the channel. Haven't seen the data tables yet but the majority seem to agree with Chris Bryant and want English language programming on S4C. Not exactly sure where this would leave BBC Wales or how exactly S4C would market itself. When would S4C broadcast in English and how would you let non-Welsh speakers know that an English programme was on. Also where would the money come from?
Anyway will update when the tables are out.
Basically it does not look good for the defenders of the channel. Haven't seen the data tables yet but the majority seem to agree with Chris Bryant and want English language programming on S4C. Not exactly sure where this would leave BBC Wales or how exactly S4C would market itself. When would S4C broadcast in English and how would you let non-Welsh speakers know that an English programme was on. Also where would the money come from?
Anyway will update when the tables are out.
Sunday 7 November 2010
Not all doom and gloom for Lib Dems
Looking back over the last few weeks I've realised that there's a lot of doom and gloom on this site for Lib Dems so I thought I should take the opportunity to raise the spirits over at Freedom Central.
Firstly - The latest Yougov poll has them back up at 12% (the midweek 9% was obviously a rogue poll). Since Yougov is consistently 3% or 4% lower than the telephone pollsters things might not be all that bad and could pick up by next May.
Secondly - I have it from a good source that there will not be a by-election in Montgomeryshire. Even if Mick stands down we are close enough to the next Assembly election not to need a by-election.
All in all things aren't that bad and although they are probably giving up hope of winning in Swansea or Newport I really can't see them falling below 6 (although they've got a close fight up north). Not quite the 31 that Kirsty talked about when she was elected but... There biggest potential problem is not 2011 but the council elections in 2012, there they really do have a lot to lose and that could be a bad night for Kirsty, Nick et al.
Firstly - The latest Yougov poll has them back up at 12% (the midweek 9% was obviously a rogue poll). Since Yougov is consistently 3% or 4% lower than the telephone pollsters things might not be all that bad and could pick up by next May.
Secondly - I have it from a good source that there will not be a by-election in Montgomeryshire. Even if Mick stands down we are close enough to the next Assembly election not to need a by-election.
All in all things aren't that bad and although they are probably giving up hope of winning in Swansea or Newport I really can't see them falling below 6 (although they've got a close fight up north). Not quite the 31 that Kirsty talked about when she was elected but... There biggest potential problem is not 2011 but the council elections in 2012, there they really do have a lot to lose and that could be a bad night for Kirsty, Nick et al.
Friday 5 November 2010
First Westminster By-Election
Phil Woolas seems to have got exactly what he deserves. We've all seen leaflets that "bend" the truth a bit but what Woolas seems to have been doing was bringing politics into disrepute. It will be a very interesting by-election as its a three way marginal. Given the circumstances of a re-run election you'd fancy the second place party to pick it up. But since that's the Lib Dems then the race is completely open. Should be very interesting.
Looking at the Assembly there's still an outside chance that we could have a by-election if Mick Bates loses his court case and is persuaded to do the decent thing and stand down. It would be an interesting fight between the Libs and Tories. If people are angry at the coalition who would they vote for? Could be a big swing to someone, just don't know who.
Looking at the Assembly there's still an outside chance that we could have a by-election if Mick Bates loses his court case and is persuaded to do the decent thing and stand down. It would be an interesting fight between the Libs and Tories. If people are angry at the coalition who would they vote for? Could be a big swing to someone, just don't know who.
Thursday 4 November 2010
YouGov S4C questions
Yougov have now published their ITV poll but their is still no mention of the missing S4C questions. There is a rally on the weekend about this so possibly they are holding it back to do a piece tomorrow night. But if they don't use it tomorrow when will they? The data is getting old guys...
Lib Dems in single figures
Following on from the Welsh Lib Dems dropping to 8% with yougov, the daily tracker has today got them down in single figures for the first time that I can remember (9%). They definitely haven't been this low since prior to 1997.
Now there are a lot of possible reasons for this. Firstly as many lib dems have pointed out, yougov is giving particularly low Lib-Dem scores and most phone pollsters have them at least 5% higher. Secondly this is nearly certainly an outlier. The Lib Dems seem to be polling 11-13% with yougov, if you keep polling every day random error will in the end see the vote go below 10%. There are also some possible issues with Yougovs methodology which Mike Smithson has raised on political betting .
But whatever the excuses things are not looking good for the Lib Dems. A lot of the polling for this poll would have taken place before people watched the footage on tuition fees and this subject really is not going to go down well with Lib Dem supporters. Mike Smithson, a former Lib Dem candidate, had this to say "So they’ve got a bit of embarrassment now - well tough shit. They should have asked questions before making such public commitments." Couldn't agree more.
Now there are a lot of possible reasons for this. Firstly as many lib dems have pointed out, yougov is giving particularly low Lib-Dem scores and most phone pollsters have them at least 5% higher. Secondly this is nearly certainly an outlier. The Lib Dems seem to be polling 11-13% with yougov, if you keep polling every day random error will in the end see the vote go below 10%. There are also some possible issues with Yougovs methodology which Mike Smithson has raised on political betting .
But whatever the excuses things are not looking good for the Lib Dems. A lot of the polling for this poll would have taken place before people watched the footage on tuition fees and this subject really is not going to go down well with Lib Dem supporters. Mike Smithson, a former Lib Dem candidate, had this to say "So they’ve got a bit of embarrassment now - well tough shit. They should have asked questions before making such public commitments." Couldn't agree more.
Wednesday 3 November 2010
American Election (and great ads)
Well the pollsters seem to have called most seats well and there were very few shocks (which is impressive considering the number of seats up for grabs). I can't say that I completely understand American politics. The issues that get people excited are completely different to Wales and the way that campaigns are run also seems very different. All candidates seem to concentrate on selling the "sizzle" as opposed to the "Beef", as Walter Mondale might have put it.
Anyway my favourite part of the campaign has been checking out American campaign ads. If you haven't seen any then have a look at this top ten from adweek Their number one is below. (hat-tip to Benedict Pringle whose Political Advertising blog is one of my favourites on the web)
Anyway my favourite part of the campaign has been checking out American campaign ads. If you haven't seen any then have a look at this top ten from adweek Their number one is below. (hat-tip to Benedict Pringle whose Political Advertising blog is one of my favourites on the web)
Tuesday 2 November 2010
AV poll
Today's been a pretty heavy day for blogging but I've just spotted Anthony Wells' blog on the latest AV polling and thought it was worth a mention.
The original data is available here but basically the news is that FPTP is beating AV by 43% to 32%. In all honesty I couldn't care less about this small change in voting methods but the narrative of this campaign could play an important role in the Welsh Assembly election. If Clegg is on the way to victory (or at least a close fight) then the extra coverager should help the Libs. If he is looking at certain defeat then the narrative may be about the decline of the Libs and that won't be so helpful.
The original data is available here but basically the news is that FPTP is beating AV by 43% to 32%. In all honesty I couldn't care less about this small change in voting methods but the narrative of this campaign could play an important role in the Welsh Assembly election. If Clegg is on the way to victory (or at least a close fight) then the extra coverager should help the Libs. If he is looking at certain defeat then the narrative may be about the decline of the Libs and that won't be so helpful.
YouGov poll - Update
The YouGov poll in the Western Mail is now out and I was wrong, it does have voting intentions (though only for Westminster).
Labour 46% (36% at May 2010 election)
Conservatives 29% (26%)
Plaid 11% (11%)
Lib Dems 8% (20%)
This is disasterous for The Lib Dems. This is there worst Welsh poll so far and with their vote more than halving they would be looking at wipeout in Wales. The Labour score is very strong with neither Plaid or the Tories moving much.
Bad news for Labour and Plaid though is that most people support cutting the number of MPs in Wales (41% to 24%).
Another interesting question is on identity.
People feeling more Welsh than British 35%
People feeling equally Welsh and British 30%
People feeling more British than Welsh 28%
By some distance the lowest figure for "more Welsh than British" was the north with only 21%.
Labour 46% (36% at May 2010 election)
Conservatives 29% (26%)
Plaid 11% (11%)
Lib Dems 8% (20%)
This is disasterous for The Lib Dems. This is there worst Welsh poll so far and with their vote more than halving they would be looking at wipeout in Wales. The Labour score is very strong with neither Plaid or the Tories moving much.
Bad news for Labour and Plaid though is that most people support cutting the number of MPs in Wales (41% to 24%).
Another interesting question is on identity.
People feeling more Welsh than British 35%
People feeling equally Welsh and British 30%
People feeling more British than Welsh 28%
By some distance the lowest figure for "more Welsh than British" was the north with only 21%.
Yougov Researchers poll
A new poll in the Westen Mail today gives us a clue about how the people in Wales are responding to the cuts.
The main headlines seem to be that 56% think the cuts are too fast and that unlike in England more Welsh people blame the Con - Lib coalition for the cuts than blame Labour. (34% - 32%).
Its also interesting to note that Lib Dem voters (like everybody else) think that Wales is facing bigger cuts than the rest of the UK. How damaging this is for the yellow party can be seen from there response in the WM article. What they say is fine, blaming Lab-PC spin for leading the Welsh public astray, what's interesting is that whilst Carwyn Jones, Nick Ramsay and Nerys Evans were all willing to put their names to quotes the Lib Dems had to rely on a "spokesman". This is always a sure sign of who is hurt most by an article.
So far we haven't had the data set for this poll so we can't say if they did voting intentions or not (I'm guessing not). I'll keep an eye on yougov today and update when its available.
The main headlines seem to be that 56% think the cuts are too fast and that unlike in England more Welsh people blame the Con - Lib coalition for the cuts than blame Labour. (34% - 32%).
Its also interesting to note that Lib Dem voters (like everybody else) think that Wales is facing bigger cuts than the rest of the UK. How damaging this is for the yellow party can be seen from there response in the WM article. What they say is fine, blaming Lab-PC spin for leading the Welsh public astray, what's interesting is that whilst Carwyn Jones, Nick Ramsay and Nerys Evans were all willing to put their names to quotes the Lib Dems had to rely on a "spokesman". This is always a sure sign of who is hurt most by an article.
So far we haven't had the data set for this poll so we can't say if they did voting intentions or not (I'm guessing not). I'll keep an eye on yougov today and update when its available.
Monday 1 November 2010
Where did the ITV S4C questions go?
When I posted ahead of the ITV poll I mentioned the fact that I actually got to take part in this months panel. In the excitement of getting fresh data I didn't really take much interest in the supplementary questions. But looking back I answered about 5 questions on S4C, what I think of the channel and what I think of proposals to fund the channel through the BBC. These questions and the results have not been made public by ITV.
I am pretty confident that ITV are simply holding them back to get a second story out of them. Maybe by releasing them ahead of this weekends S4C rally in Cardiff, but if they don't release them then it will put ITV in an awkward position. Why aren't they releasing data which could boost/damage the cause of S4C. As a supplier of S4C programming and (in some ways) a rival broadcaster ITV Wales are potentially in a tricky position here.
Lets hope they release in the next few days.
I am pretty confident that ITV are simply holding them back to get a second story out of them. Maybe by releasing them ahead of this weekends S4C rally in Cardiff, but if they don't release them then it will put ITV in an awkward position. Why aren't they releasing data which could boost/damage the cause of S4C. As a supplier of S4C programming and (in some ways) a rival broadcaster ITV Wales are potentially in a tricky position here.
Lets hope they release in the next few days.
Wednesday 27 October 2010
October ITV poll update
Putting these figures into our forecaster puts the prediction at
Labour 31
Plaid 13
Tory 10
Lib Dems 5
UKIP 1
The major news really is the fact that Labour are in majority territory. UKIP are also polling TWICE what the Lib Dems are getting on the north Wales regional list and will therefore pick up Elenaor Burnhams old seat.
The tories will be back down to 1 constituency and their ranks will instead be filled with a 2nd list member for Mid and West and a 3rd list member for the North. It looks grim for Angela Burns, Paul Davies, Jonathan Morgan and Darren Millar.
Labour 31
Plaid 13
Tory 10
Lib Dems 5
UKIP 1
The major news really is the fact that Labour are in majority territory. UKIP are also polling TWICE what the Lib Dems are getting on the north Wales regional list and will therefore pick up Elenaor Burnhams old seat.
The tories will be back down to 1 constituency and their ranks will instead be filled with a 2nd list member for Mid and West and a 3rd list member for the North. It looks grim for Angela Burns, Paul Davies, Jonathan Morgan and Darren Millar.
October ITV Wales YouGov Poll
The figures for the ITV YouGov October Poll are just coming out.
Sample size = 1,012 people.
Headline figures are
Constituency Voting Intention
Oct (Sep) Change
Lab 44% (44%) -
PC 21% (19%) +2%
Con 19% (22%) -3%
Lib Dem 9% (11%) -2%
Oth 8% (5%) +3%
List voting Intention
Lab 40% (41%) -1%
PC 23% (19%) +4%
Con 18% (20%) -2%
Lib Dem 9% (12%) -3%
Oth 11% (8%) +3%
Referendum
Yes 52% (49%) +3%
No 29% (30%) -1%
DK 20% (20%) -
Sample size = 1,012 people.
Headline figures are
Constituency Voting Intention
Oct (Sep) Change
Lab 44% (44%) -
PC 21% (19%) +2%
Con 19% (22%) -3%
Lib Dem 9% (11%) -2%
Oth 8% (5%) +3%
List voting Intention
Lab 40% (41%) -1%
PC 23% (19%) +4%
Con 18% (20%) -2%
Lib Dem 9% (12%) -3%
Oth 11% (8%) +3%
Referendum
Yes 52% (49%) +3%
No 29% (30%) -1%
DK 20% (20%) -
Tuesday 26 October 2010
My 0.1%
As someone who has been on the yougov panel for over 3 years I have often wondered why I never get asked about Welsh voting intentions.
Yesterday that changed and I took part in the YouGov poll that will (probably) be released tomorrow. I can therefore comfortably prdict 0.1% of the answers on this months poll.
As well as their usual constituency, regional & referendum questions they also asked what department people think should be protected and, interestingly, a series of questios on S4C. Do people agree with S4C being funded through BBC, attitudes to S4C and Welsh language broadcasting.
Should be interesting...
Yesterday that changed and I took part in the YouGov poll that will (probably) be released tomorrow. I can therefore comfortably prdict 0.1% of the answers on this months poll.
As well as their usual constituency, regional & referendum questions they also asked what department people think should be protected and, interestingly, a series of questios on S4C. Do people agree with S4C being funded through BBC, attitudes to S4C and Welsh language broadcasting.
Should be interesting...
Thursday 14 October 2010
AV referendum, the Lib Dems and Wales 2011
Latest polling from yougov shows that there is now a 5% lead for FPTP against AV.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
Wednesday 29 September 2010
Headline Figures ITV Wales YouGov September Poll
Welsh Assembly Constituency Result
Welsh Labour 44% (+5)
Welsh Conservatives 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems 11% (+1)
Others 5% (-3)
Welsh Assembly Regional Result
Welsh Labour 41% (+2)
Welsh Conservatives 20% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems 12% (+3)
Others 8% (no change)
Poll of 1,088 people with fieldwork taking place between the 27/9/2010 and 29/9/2010.
Assembly Members
On a Uniform National Swing this gives:
Labour 30 seats
Conservatives 12 seats
Plaid Cymru 11 seats
Lib Dems 7 seats
Others 0 seats
Welsh Labour 44% (+5)
Welsh Conservatives 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems 11% (+1)
Others 5% (-3)
Welsh Assembly Regional Result
Welsh Labour 41% (+2)
Welsh Conservatives 20% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 19% (-4)
Welsh Lib Dems 12% (+3)
Others 8% (no change)
Poll of 1,088 people with fieldwork taking place between the 27/9/2010 and 29/9/2010.
Assembly Members
On a Uniform National Swing this gives:
Labour 30 seats
Conservatives 12 seats
Plaid Cymru 11 seats
Lib Dems 7 seats
Others 0 seats
September ITV Wales You Gov Poll
Well the poll is most definitely coming out today and I have just had a tip off from a very happy member of Welsh Labour. Full results yet to arrive but it does appear that the bounce following Labour's conference is replicated in Wales.
A word of caution though. Post conference polls invariably show a boost to the respective party. Labour in Wales appear to have been lucky with the timing of this poll. Will things return to 'normal' next month?
This page will be updated when we get the full results and details of Plaid Cymru, Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Lib Dems.
A word of caution though. Post conference polls invariably show a boost to the respective party. Labour in Wales appear to have been lucky with the timing of this poll. Will things return to 'normal' next month?
This page will be updated when we get the full results and details of Plaid Cymru, Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Lib Dems.
Tuesday 28 September 2010
September ITV / You Gov Poll
Next ITV Wales / You Gov poll expected this week. I am reliably informed that field work (ok, well online survey) has been in circulation this week. Once results are announced we will put them up here. Big question must be has the bounce for Labour in the UK polls been replicated in Wales?
Tuesday 21 September 2010
Monday 20 September 2010
Methodology
The predictor on this blog uses Uniform National Swing (UNS) and an option to use Uniform Regional Swing (URS).
UNS is the simplest model of applying opinion poll results to the results of the last election and estimating what impact movements in public opinion have if an election was held tomorrow. URS follows the same principle as UNS but works at Assembly Regional level - ie the South West, the North etc
Put simply:
As the National Assembly uses a regional top up system we have been able to offer two methods of entering data:
If you do not enter figures for all regions the default will be taken from the national regional prediction - buit where you do enter data this will over ride the national figure.
A similar predictor to the one found here can be seen at Electoral Calculas UK which has a good record of predicting UK elections - although fails to take account of changes in support of Plaid Cymru and so is of limited use for Welsh politics.
UNS is the simplest model of applying opinion poll results to the results of the last election and estimating what impact movements in public opinion have if an election was held tomorrow. URS follows the same principle as UNS but works at Assembly Regional level - ie the South West, the North etc
Put simply:
- UNS says that if a party is up 3% nationally, that it will be up 3% in each seat.
- URS says that if a party is up 3% in a specific region, then it will be up 3% in each seat in that region.
As the National Assembly uses a regional top up system we have been able to offer two methods of entering data:
- the percentage of the national constituency vote and the percentage of the national regional vote.
- the percentage of the constituency vote insode a specific region and the percentage of the regional vote insode a specific region.
If you do not enter figures for all regions the default will be taken from the national regional prediction - buit where you do enter data this will over ride the national figure.
A similar predictor to the one found here can be seen at Electoral Calculas UK which has a good record of predicting UK elections - although fails to take account of changes in support of Plaid Cymru and so is of limited use for Welsh politics.
Thursday 26 August 2010
Yougov polls
The most recent yougov poll for Wales is available here http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-250810.pdf
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
Western Mail report on August 2010 You Gov / ITV Wales poll.
Western Mail reporting on latest You Gov / ITV Wales poll today.
Poll predicts no Labour majority in Assembly poll
Aug 26 2010 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail
A WALES-WIDE poll in advance of next May’s National Assembly election confirmed a trend that Labour is not expected to win an overall majority.
The monthly tracker poll carried out for ITV Wales by YouGov gave Labour 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 22%, the Liberal Democrats 10% and Others 6% in the 40 first-past-the-post constituencies.
In the top-up regional seats, Labour was on 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9% and Others 8%.
Taking into account regional variations in support, Labour would be expected on the basis of these figures to win 27 seats (up one from 2007), Plaid Cymru 13 (two less), the Conservatives 13 (up one) and the Liberal Democrats 7 (up one).
Independent Blaenau Gwent AM Trish Law would lose her seat to Labour.
Labour would win Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Clwyd West from the Conservatives, but would lose two regional list seats in Mid and West Wales.
The Conservatives would win two regional seats in Mid and West Wales as well as two more from Plaid in South Wales East and South Wales West. The Liberal Democrats would gain an extra regional seat in North Wales at the expense of the Conservatives.
The poll also showed a steady lead for a Yes vote in the referendum on more lawmaking powers for the Assembly expected next March. 48% said they would vote Yes, 32% No and 21% either didn’t know or said they would not vote.
A spokesman for Welsh Labour said: “All over Wales we are hearing people tell of their deep anger and dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats propping up this old-fashioned Tory Government.”
Poll predicts no Labour majority in Assembly poll
Aug 26 2010 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail
A WALES-WIDE poll in advance of next May’s National Assembly election confirmed a trend that Labour is not expected to win an overall majority.
The monthly tracker poll carried out for ITV Wales by YouGov gave Labour 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 22%, the Liberal Democrats 10% and Others 6% in the 40 first-past-the-post constituencies.
In the top-up regional seats, Labour was on 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9% and Others 8%.
Taking into account regional variations in support, Labour would be expected on the basis of these figures to win 27 seats (up one from 2007), Plaid Cymru 13 (two less), the Conservatives 13 (up one) and the Liberal Democrats 7 (up one).
Independent Blaenau Gwent AM Trish Law would lose her seat to Labour.
Labour would win Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Clwyd West from the Conservatives, but would lose two regional list seats in Mid and West Wales.
The Conservatives would win two regional seats in Mid and West Wales as well as two more from Plaid in South Wales East and South Wales West. The Liberal Democrats would gain an extra regional seat in North Wales at the expense of the Conservatives.
The poll also showed a steady lead for a Yes vote in the referendum on more lawmaking powers for the Assembly expected next March. 48% said they would vote Yes, 32% No and 21% either didn’t know or said they would not vote.
A spokesman for Welsh Labour said: “All over Wales we are hearing people tell of their deep anger and dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats propping up this old-fashioned Tory Government.”
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