ITV Yougov analysis

Firstly I just want to make clear how thankful I am that ITV Wales is paying thousands of pounds to commission opinion polls in Wales. Without them we would have no information at all on what Welsh voters think.

But how are they working out their predicted AMs?

Last night ITV predicted that these yougov figures would deliver

Labour 28
Plaid 13
Tory 13
Lib Dem 6

I'm sorry but I simply can't agree with this. In 2007 the Lib Dems got 15% in constituencies and 12% in regions. Now they are on 9% in both.

To get a list seat in the North the Lib Dems needed a minimum of 6.4%. In 2007 they got 7.8%. Since they are now 3% down on what they got in 2007 that puts them on 4.8%. I haven't seen the local breakdown yet but last time they were doing even worse than the national swing in the north. They are also in a similar problem in the South East (though not quite so desperate).

I just can't see how this poll puts them on 6 seats.

update

the poll figures are available here
Things to note are that the Lib dems are on 6% in the north and 4% in South East. This is in line with them losing at least one of the seats. (Although these regional samples are small, unweighted and vary an awful lot).

Also worth noting that the Greens are up to 10% in SWC and the Lib Dems are only getting 6% in the Mid and West constituencies. Obviously this is all on very small samples but is worth keeping an eye on.