Yougov December Poll

Lib Dems must be panicking now with the latest yougov figures for them falling off a cliff.

Constituency December poll (change since November)

Lab 44% (nc)

PC 21% (nc)

Con 23% (+2)

Lib 6% (-3)

Other 6% (nc)

Regional December poll (change since November)

Lab 42% (+1)

PC 21% (+1)

Con 22% (+2)

Lib 5% (-4)

UKIP 5% (+1)

Put into our predictor this has Labour 30, Plaid 13, Tory 15, Lib Dems 2. Unfortunately the predictor does not treat UKIP as an equal party to the others so this will need editing. Also their are problems with using a uniform swing when a parties vote is so varied across a region. On these ratings the Libs will struggle to hold more than one seat (either Brecon and radnor or the M&W list seat).

To put into context how awful things are for Kirsty Williams only in 1 of the 5 regions (Mid and West) did the Lib Dems come 4th!

In South Wales Central they were 5th behind the greens. In the South East, north and south West they were 5th behind UKIP. To make matters even worse in the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%).

All in all they are in an incredibly poor position. I have always thought that 6 seats was the floor that it was impossible for the Libs to drop beneath. This poll completely blows that theory away.

Of course this is only one poll but if this is anywhere close to reality the Lib Dems will need to run a truly amazing campaign next year.

They also asked their usual referendum question. The result is

Yes: 46% (-2)

No 25% (-5)

Don't know / won't vote 29% (+7)

This is still good news for the yes campaign.

Update: tables available here

ITV Yougov analysis

Firstly I just want to make clear how thankful I am that ITV Wales is paying thousands of pounds to commission opinion polls in Wales. Without them we would have no information at all on what Welsh voters think.

But how are they working out their predicted AMs?

Last night ITV predicted that these yougov figures would deliver

Labour 28
Plaid 13
Tory 13
Lib Dem 6

I'm sorry but I simply can't agree with this. In 2007 the Lib Dems got 15% in constituencies and 12% in regions. Now they are on 9% in both.

To get a list seat in the North the Lib Dems needed a minimum of 6.4%. In 2007 they got 7.8%. Since they are now 3% down on what they got in 2007 that puts them on 4.8%. I haven't seen the local breakdown yet but last time they were doing even worse than the national swing in the north. They are also in a similar problem in the South East (though not quite so desperate).

I just can't see how this poll puts them on 6 seats.

update

the poll figures are available here
Things to note are that the Lib dems are on 6% in the north and 4% in South East. This is in line with them losing at least one of the seats. (Although these regional samples are small, unweighted and vary an awful lot).

Also worth noting that the Greens are up to 10% in SWC and the Lib Dems are only getting 6% in the Mid and West constituencies. Obviously this is all on very small samples but is worth keeping an eye on.