Just read Betsan Powys's blog and realised quite how misleading and annoying stats reporting is in Wales.
Betsan is looking at various politicians responses to the "drop" in unemployment. This seems to make sense. The figures clearly say that there are 12,000 less people unemployed in Wales. Everyone rejoice at these amazing cuts. Depending on your affiliation either the Con-Dem cuts are working or One Wales is delivering despite London's efforts.
What no one looks at is page 8 of the statistics which clearly say how accurate these figures are. The truth is that the change in Unemployment is anything between a drop of 35,000 or an increase of 10,000. And there's a 5% chance that the change could be better than a 35,000 drop or worse than a 10,000 increase.
Every month we get these same stories (Wales does worse than the rest of UK. First Minister welcomes Unemployment drop. Wales failing as unemployment rises). But the truth is that all of these stories are b******t. There based on figures that simply aren't accurate to the level there being reported. If even the BBC don't understand this then we have a serious problem.
Agreed. It is unreasonable to expect immediate stats to offer more than a guide to trends, and a rough and ready one at that. Hence the regular revisions of GDP figures as more data becomes available. Sadly even the publicly funded media does little to explain or interpret nowadays - which makes it all the more important for small blogs like this to supply the necessary context.
ReplyDeleteCarry on the good work.
Yes, this (and the following) post is very interesting. But expecting journalists to go beyond an eye catching headline, to get to the truth? Surely well outside the 95% probability bell curve!
ReplyDelete