Looking back over the last few weeks I've realised that there's a lot of doom and gloom on this site for Lib Dems so I thought I should take the opportunity to raise the spirits over at Freedom Central.
Firstly - The latest Yougov poll has them back up at 12% (the midweek 9% was obviously a rogue poll). Since Yougov is consistently 3% or 4% lower than the telephone pollsters things might not be all that bad and could pick up by next May.
Secondly - I have it from a good source that there will not be a by-election in Montgomeryshire. Even if Mick stands down we are close enough to the next Assembly election not to need a by-election.
All in all things aren't that bad and although they are probably giving up hope of winning in Swansea or Newport I really can't see them falling below 6 (although they've got a close fight up north). Not quite the 31 that Kirsty talked about when she was elected but... There biggest potential problem is not 2011 but the council elections in 2012, there they really do have a lot to lose and that could be a bad night for Kirsty, Nick et al.
My personal feelings are seven (South Wales Central being the extra gain)
ReplyDeleteYou might be right. But I'd say that it's only possible if the Lib Dems hold Cardiff central (not guaranteed on current polling with a new candidate), the Tories hold Cardiff North (Julie Morgan is a serious threat here) and the Tories take the Vale of Glamorgan.
ReplyDeleteAs I said earlier I think the odds are on staying at six (60%?) with five being (25%ish) seven (10%) and four at(5%).
It will be interesting to see what the bookies think if they open a book on it.