Yougov Figures are
Constituency
Labour 44%
Plaid 21%
Tory 21%
Lib Dem 9%
Other 6%
Regional
Labour 41%
Plaid 20%
Tory 20%
Lib Dem 9%
Ukip 4%
Our predictor puts it at
Labour 29 seats
Plaid 14
Tory 13
Lib Dems 4
Good for Labour, Ok for Plaid and Tories, disaster for the Lib Dems.
Update
I've updated the graphs and predictor with the new figures.
Remarkable consistency across the autumn.
ReplyDeleteOne note of caution. As Anthony Wells states, YouGov don't adjust their topline numbers by any 'likelihood to vote' factor. Whilst any adjustment might have omly a limited effect on headline voting intention numbers, I fear it could be more pertinent to the powers referendum question, where the idea that 80% of folk have a distinct preference and will vote seems rather implausible given that overall turnout in '97 was just 25%. Without accompanying data to measure how strongly people feel about the desirability or otherwise of more legislative powers, it is a bit simplistic to assume the effect on both yes and no sides would be broadly equivalent (i.e. if 'no' supporters were twice as likely to vote as 'yes' supporters, that would put the numbers in a whole different light). I will look forward, as always, to the full tables, but until the 'don't know/won't score' becomes a bit more realistic i'd be very cautious about putting too much confidence in them.
Overall turnout in 1997 25%? Er, no.
ReplyDeleteApologies. Turnout was of course 50.1%. Point still stands ...
ReplyDelete