Latest polling from yougov shows that there is now a 5% lead for FPTP against AV.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
Under normal circumstances I would have thought that giving Nick Clegg a high media profile in Wales ahead of the Assemby elections would be good for the Lib Dems; however as it seems increasingly likely that the Welsh Lib Dems will be trying to distance themselves from the Coalition government in Westminster then the strategy could seriously backfire.
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