Putting these figures into our forecaster puts the prediction at
Labour 31
Plaid 13
Tory 10
Lib Dems 5
UKIP 1
The major news really is the fact that Labour are in majority territory. UKIP are also polling TWICE what the Lib Dems are getting on the north Wales regional list and will therefore pick up Elenaor Burnhams old seat.
The tories will be back down to 1 constituency and their ranks will instead be filled with a 2nd list member for Mid and West and a 3rd list member for the North. It looks grim for Angela Burns, Paul Davies, Jonathan Morgan and Darren Millar.
would be interesting to see a person who wants to abolish the very institution they work in, taking up their seat. So will UKIP do a Sinn Fein and stay away?
ReplyDeleteIt's an interesting one. Whether UKIP make the breakthrough will depend a lot on their role in the referendum. If they lead the no campaign they could really pick up a lot of votes. The North definitely looks winnable.
ReplyDeleteGoing on the European parliament experience where UKIP have taken all their seats and taken advantage of the perks as well its a fair bet that they will take their seats.
The 4th Assembly could see the biggest turnover of AMs so far.