Yougov polls

The most recent yougov poll for Wales is available here http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-250810.pdf

The headline figures are

Constituency

Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%


Regional

Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%


If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here

The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.

The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).

The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.