There's a new poll in the Wales on Sunday today which is looking at peoples reaction to the budget cuts. Its an interesting read.
The main findings seem to be that people want to see education and health spending spared with sport and art taking more of a hit. With the Welsh draft budget expected soon this is reinforcing the idea that protecting "core" services is likely to be a very important factor.
Its also interesting to see that people seem to trust the Welsh Assembly Government to cut fairly. I think there is a growing perception that Labour/Plaid is fairer than Tories/Lib Dems. Looking forward to see if this is reflected in more Welsh polls.
"Clarity interviewed 385 adults across Wales between November 9 and 11. rmg:Clarity is part of the Research and Marketing Group, the longest-established full service market research agency in Wales. Founded in 1968, it specialises and is well established in three disciplines: market research, direct mail and data management."
ReplyDelete385? Enough said... before we even start on the marketing guff! It's not even approaching a meaningful sample.
Is the "longest-established full service market research agency in Wales" a member of the MRS? If so it should read the 2010 code of conduct.
WoS will publish anything, of course!
I agree with Anon 21:16. Voodoo polls such as this one based on small samples, using unclear methodology and conducted by hole in the wall firms that are not members of the British Polling Council do not deserve and should not recieve equal billing with those conducted - at no little expense - by reputable organisations.
ReplyDeleteI would hope that this site (very worthwhile btw) would aim to encourage critical appraisal of polling data, rather than treating them all as equal when it is self evident to those of us who take an interest in the discipline that they ain't.
By all means report them when they appear, but please consider including some caveats so that you avoid giving your lay readers the erroneous impression that the results should be taken at face value.
Thanks for the feedback. In the defence of the Wales on Sunday (never thought I'd say that!) RMG is a member of the MRS and is a well respected marketing agency.
ReplyDeleteThe sample size is small but is not irrelevant. The confidence margins are obviuosly larger as the sample is smaller but they will still be less than double the margins of a 1000 person poll (to halve the confidence error you need to quadruple the sample size).
Obviously result that are +/- 6% (at 95% confidence levels) are pretty rough and ready but they are still legitimate. These were not VI questions (which would have been very dodgy) but instead questions on where people would prefer to see cuts. I think that the pattern is quite clear and that this backs up the yougov poll. People want the Arts to be cut and Health to be protectr
Although the fact that the WoS chose to put their results to a decimal place is obviously laughable.