Lib Dems must be panicking now with the latest yougov figures for them falling off a cliff.
Constituency December poll (change since November)
Lab 44% (nc)
PC 21% (nc)
Con 23% (+2)
Lib 6% (-3)
Other 6% (nc)
Regional December poll (change since November)
Lab 42% (+1)
PC 21% (+1)
Con 22% (+2)
Lib 5% (-4)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Put into our predictor this has Labour 30, Plaid 13, Tory 15, Lib Dems 2. Unfortunately the predictor does not treat UKIP as an equal party to the others so this will need editing. Also their are problems with using a uniform swing when a parties vote is so varied across a region. On these ratings the Libs will struggle to hold more than one seat (either Brecon and radnor or the M&W list seat).
To put into context how awful things are for Kirsty Williams only in 1 of the 5 regions (Mid and West) did the Lib Dems come 4th!
In South Wales Central they were 5th behind the greens. In the South East, north and south West they were 5th behind UKIP. To make matters even worse in the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%).
All in all they are in an incredibly poor position. I have always thought that 6 seats was the floor that it was impossible for the Libs to drop beneath. This poll completely blows that theory away.
Of course this is only one poll but if this is anywhere close to reality the Lib Dems will need to run a truly amazing campaign next year.
They also asked their usual referendum question. The result is
Yes: 46% (-2)
No 25% (-5)
Don't know / won't vote 29% (+7)
This is still good news for the yes campaign.
Update: tables available here
The Welsh Lib Dems are not the same as the Federal Party. People must realise this - its not our fault.
ReplyDeleteUnlike the other parties (inc Plaid Cymru) I think the Lib Dems trouble is they don't really have a 'bedrock' vote they can count on when they are up against it. Protest votes easilly split to unsullied protest parties (Greens, UKIP). More rightwing voters are now heading straight to the Tories. Many of the remainder are 'tactical' Lib Dems. Of these the ones voted LD to keep Labour out will still be pretty content, but those residents of the upper swansea/neath vallies who voted LD in Brecon & Radnorshire must feel most betrayed of all. Kirsty Williams will need to do very well indeed to hold the constituency without this group.
ReplyDeleteAgree that Kirsty is in trouble but at least she has built up a personal vote and has a good majority. Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central are going to be really hard with new candidates.
ReplyDeleteActually, if you look closely it seems that they have changed the referendum question wording a little bit. This may account for the substantial increase in don't knows on this question since last month's equivalent poll.
ReplyDeleteTwm,
ReplyDeleteI'm cautiously calling Cardiff Central for Llafur along with North. Greens also look a real breakthrough prospect on a couple of the lists. Does anyone have a link to their candidates info?
Jonathan Morgan is a very strong campaigner with a good majority and Cardiff centrals Lib Dems are one of the best election winning machines in Wales. They hold every council ward and have a huge majority. Both are going to be very close. I wouldn't call either.
ReplyDelete