The most recent yougov poll for Wales is available here http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-250810.pdf
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
Thursday, 26 August 2010
Western Mail report on August 2010 You Gov / ITV Wales poll.
Western Mail reporting on latest You Gov / ITV Wales poll today.
Poll predicts no Labour majority in Assembly poll
Aug 26 2010 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail
A WALES-WIDE poll in advance of next May’s National Assembly election confirmed a trend that Labour is not expected to win an overall majority.
The monthly tracker poll carried out for ITV Wales by YouGov gave Labour 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 22%, the Liberal Democrats 10% and Others 6% in the 40 first-past-the-post constituencies.
In the top-up regional seats, Labour was on 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9% and Others 8%.
Taking into account regional variations in support, Labour would be expected on the basis of these figures to win 27 seats (up one from 2007), Plaid Cymru 13 (two less), the Conservatives 13 (up one) and the Liberal Democrats 7 (up one).
Independent Blaenau Gwent AM Trish Law would lose her seat to Labour.
Labour would win Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Clwyd West from the Conservatives, but would lose two regional list seats in Mid and West Wales.
The Conservatives would win two regional seats in Mid and West Wales as well as two more from Plaid in South Wales East and South Wales West. The Liberal Democrats would gain an extra regional seat in North Wales at the expense of the Conservatives.
The poll also showed a steady lead for a Yes vote in the referendum on more lawmaking powers for the Assembly expected next March. 48% said they would vote Yes, 32% No and 21% either didn’t know or said they would not vote.
A spokesman for Welsh Labour said: “All over Wales we are hearing people tell of their deep anger and dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats propping up this old-fashioned Tory Government.”
Poll predicts no Labour majority in Assembly poll
Aug 26 2010 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail
A WALES-WIDE poll in advance of next May’s National Assembly election confirmed a trend that Labour is not expected to win an overall majority.
The monthly tracker poll carried out for ITV Wales by YouGov gave Labour 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 22%, the Liberal Democrats 10% and Others 6% in the 40 first-past-the-post constituencies.
In the top-up regional seats, Labour was on 39%, Plaid Cymru 23%, the Conservatives 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9% and Others 8%.
Taking into account regional variations in support, Labour would be expected on the basis of these figures to win 27 seats (up one from 2007), Plaid Cymru 13 (two less), the Conservatives 13 (up one) and the Liberal Democrats 7 (up one).
Independent Blaenau Gwent AM Trish Law would lose her seat to Labour.
Labour would win Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Clwyd West from the Conservatives, but would lose two regional list seats in Mid and West Wales.
The Conservatives would win two regional seats in Mid and West Wales as well as two more from Plaid in South Wales East and South Wales West. The Liberal Democrats would gain an extra regional seat in North Wales at the expense of the Conservatives.
The poll also showed a steady lead for a Yes vote in the referendum on more lawmaking powers for the Assembly expected next March. 48% said they would vote Yes, 32% No and 21% either didn’t know or said they would not vote.
A spokesman for Welsh Labour said: “All over Wales we are hearing people tell of their deep anger and dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democrats propping up this old-fashioned Tory Government.”
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