Latest polling from yougov shows that there is now a 5% lead for FPTP against AV.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
Showing posts with label Welsh Conservatives. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Welsh Conservatives. Show all posts
Thursday, 14 October 2010
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Thursday, 26 August 2010
Yougov polls
The most recent yougov poll for Wales is available here http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-250810.pdf
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
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