In a few weeks the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election will take place. This is important not just because it is the first post GE test but also it will let us know how easy it is for the coalition parties to persuade their supporters to vote tactically for their coalition partner. Cameron has made it well known that he wants his supporters to tactically vote Lib Dem and the gossip on Conservative Home is that the support has not been their from Central Office for the Conservative campaign.
More than that a Tory minister has today in the Telegraph been talking about putting up joint "coalition" candidates at the next election.
So I thought it might be interesting to wonder what kind of agreements might be achieved in Wales at the Assembly election.
Firstly in Cardiff I have no doubt that any Tories in Cardiff central will head up to Cardiff north and all of the Lib efforts will be concentrated on Cardiff Central. This is just common sense.
The more interesting battle will be what happens in Powys. In terms of new seats the only possible gains for the Conservatives on current polling are Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnor (though the Vale of Glam might be interesting). Will Tory HQ allow the Welsh Conservatives to taget these seats? I'm certain that Glyn Davies will be doing all he can to help the Tories win in Montgomeryshire and with the antics of both Lembit and Mick there is a definite opportunity here. My guess is that the tactical Plaid and Labour votes will return home (instead of tactically voting Lib Dems) so this seat is really up for grabs.
Less obvious but more interesting is Brecon and Radnor.
2007 Result
Kirsty Williams (LD) 15,006 - 52.2%
Suzy Davies (Con) 9,652 - 33.6%
Neil Stone (Lab) 2,514 - 8.7%
Arwel Lloyd (PC) 1,576 - 5.5%
Despite the 20% majority I still think this seat is winnable for the Tories. The main reason for this is the fact that in 2007 the Tories won the regional vote (though I can't find the figures for this, if someone can confirm I'd appreciate it).
The truth is that the Libs in Brecon and Radnor have been very good at targeting PC and more importantly Labour voters to vote tactically for them. Traditionally this is a very strong seat for Labour, they came within 600 votes of winning the by-election in 1985, but Kirsty and Roger Williams have been able to persuade these voters to tactically switch. Places like Ystradgynlais will not be backing a "Con-Dem" candidate this time and I am very confident that the Labour candidate will get over 15% of the poll.
The question is, will Tory HQ allow a Tory candidate to unseat the Welsh Lib Dem Leader? My guess is that Clegg will ask a favour of Cameron and not a single penny will go from central office to the B&R campaign.
If anyone has any local info on how the Tories are fightin this seat it would be interesting.
Showing posts with label Welsh Lib Dems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Welsh Lib Dems. Show all posts
Sunday, 26 December 2010
Tuesday, 16 November 2010
Lib Dem Poll of members
Just seen this interesting link on Freedom Central to a poll of Lib Dem members.
It seems that amongst Lib Dems Kirsty has a rating of +27%
below are Kirsty's results in full (no other Welsh Lib made the list).
Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Very effective 12%
Quite effective 24%
Quite ineffective 7%
Very ineffective 2%
Don’t know / No opinion 55%
Net effectiveness +27% (+18%)
You may notice that 55% of the Lib Dem Voice members only forum (the Libs Praetorian Guard of activists) don't seem to know who Kirsty is (or at least don't have an opinion on her).
This makes her slightly more well known than Alistair Carmichael, Deputy Chief Whip to the House of Commons (65% don't know) but less well known than Andrew Stunell, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State to the Department for Communities and Local Government (39%) or Paul Burstow, Minister of State for the Department of Health(45%).
I'm sure by next month she'll cross that psychological "50% of key activists know who I am" barrier. I will keep everyone updated.
PS I'd like to apologise to any Lib Dems readers. I don't mean to pick on you and will happily have a go at any other party who openly publish polls of members. It just seems that your the only people who are as obsessive as us about polling and stats.
It seems that amongst Lib Dems Kirsty has a rating of +27%
below are Kirsty's results in full (no other Welsh Lib made the list).
Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Very effective 12%
Quite effective 24%
Quite ineffective 7%
Very ineffective 2%
Don’t know / No opinion 55%
Net effectiveness +27% (+18%)
You may notice that 55% of the Lib Dem Voice members only forum (the Libs Praetorian Guard of activists) don't seem to know who Kirsty is (or at least don't have an opinion on her).
This makes her slightly more well known than Alistair Carmichael, Deputy Chief Whip to the House of Commons (65% don't know) but less well known than Andrew Stunell, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State to the Department for Communities and Local Government (39%) or Paul Burstow, Minister of State for the Department of Health(45%).
I'm sure by next month she'll cross that psychological "50% of key activists know who I am" barrier. I will keep everyone updated.
PS I'd like to apologise to any Lib Dems readers. I don't mean to pick on you and will happily have a go at any other party who openly publish polls of members. It just seems that your the only people who are as obsessive as us about polling and stats.
Thursday, 11 November 2010
How will yesterday effect the polls?
The new Yougov daily polling means that we can get an idea of how the news impacts opinion within 48hrs of an event. Therefore tomorrow morning we will probably find out what effect yesterday's protests (and riot) have had on the polls.
There will hardly be anyone left in the country who doesn't know about the Lib Dem U-turn on tuition fees and they will definitely have lost their USP of being the "nice" party. Their vote amongst students will obviously have been hit hard. On the other hand people don't like riots and disorder and that could definitely benefit Clegg. Also he's had a lot of coverage and that usually helps. My personal guess is that we will see the Lib-Dem below 10% again at least once by the end of next week. But then again my predictions are notoriously bad.
There will hardly be anyone left in the country who doesn't know about the Lib Dem U-turn on tuition fees and they will definitely have lost their USP of being the "nice" party. Their vote amongst students will obviously have been hit hard. On the other hand people don't like riots and disorder and that could definitely benefit Clegg. Also he's had a lot of coverage and that usually helps. My personal guess is that we will see the Lib-Dem below 10% again at least once by the end of next week. But then again my predictions are notoriously bad.
Sunday, 7 November 2010
Not all doom and gloom for Lib Dems
Looking back over the last few weeks I've realised that there's a lot of doom and gloom on this site for Lib Dems so I thought I should take the opportunity to raise the spirits over at Freedom Central.
Firstly - The latest Yougov poll has them back up at 12% (the midweek 9% was obviously a rogue poll). Since Yougov is consistently 3% or 4% lower than the telephone pollsters things might not be all that bad and could pick up by next May.
Secondly - I have it from a good source that there will not be a by-election in Montgomeryshire. Even if Mick stands down we are close enough to the next Assembly election not to need a by-election.
All in all things aren't that bad and although they are probably giving up hope of winning in Swansea or Newport I really can't see them falling below 6 (although they've got a close fight up north). Not quite the 31 that Kirsty talked about when she was elected but... There biggest potential problem is not 2011 but the council elections in 2012, there they really do have a lot to lose and that could be a bad night for Kirsty, Nick et al.
Firstly - The latest Yougov poll has them back up at 12% (the midweek 9% was obviously a rogue poll). Since Yougov is consistently 3% or 4% lower than the telephone pollsters things might not be all that bad and could pick up by next May.
Secondly - I have it from a good source that there will not be a by-election in Montgomeryshire. Even if Mick stands down we are close enough to the next Assembly election not to need a by-election.
All in all things aren't that bad and although they are probably giving up hope of winning in Swansea or Newport I really can't see them falling below 6 (although they've got a close fight up north). Not quite the 31 that Kirsty talked about when she was elected but... There biggest potential problem is not 2011 but the council elections in 2012, there they really do have a lot to lose and that could be a bad night for Kirsty, Nick et al.
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Lib Dems in single figures
Following on from the Welsh Lib Dems dropping to 8% with yougov, the daily tracker has today got them down in single figures for the first time that I can remember (9%). They definitely haven't been this low since prior to 1997.
Now there are a lot of possible reasons for this. Firstly as many lib dems have pointed out, yougov is giving particularly low Lib-Dem scores and most phone pollsters have them at least 5% higher. Secondly this is nearly certainly an outlier. The Lib Dems seem to be polling 11-13% with yougov, if you keep polling every day random error will in the end see the vote go below 10%. There are also some possible issues with Yougovs methodology which Mike Smithson has raised on political betting .
But whatever the excuses things are not looking good for the Lib Dems. A lot of the polling for this poll would have taken place before people watched the footage on tuition fees and this subject really is not going to go down well with Lib Dem supporters. Mike Smithson, a former Lib Dem candidate, had this to say "So they’ve got a bit of embarrassment now - well tough shit. They should have asked questions before making such public commitments." Couldn't agree more.
Now there are a lot of possible reasons for this. Firstly as many lib dems have pointed out, yougov is giving particularly low Lib-Dem scores and most phone pollsters have them at least 5% higher. Secondly this is nearly certainly an outlier. The Lib Dems seem to be polling 11-13% with yougov, if you keep polling every day random error will in the end see the vote go below 10%. There are also some possible issues with Yougovs methodology which Mike Smithson has raised on political betting .
But whatever the excuses things are not looking good for the Lib Dems. A lot of the polling for this poll would have taken place before people watched the footage on tuition fees and this subject really is not going to go down well with Lib Dem supporters. Mike Smithson, a former Lib Dem candidate, had this to say "So they’ve got a bit of embarrassment now - well tough shit. They should have asked questions before making such public commitments." Couldn't agree more.
Thursday, 14 October 2010
AV referendum, the Lib Dems and Wales 2011
Latest polling from yougov shows that there is now a 5% lead for FPTP against AV.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
A lot can change in the next 7 months but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Nick Clegg will be able to win this one. The referendum will be a chance to give the Coalition government a kicking (even if the Tories oppose AV it is symbolic of the Coalition) without actually risking anything that voters care about.
In the long term this referendum might hurt the Libs. But what effect will it have on the Assembly election? On a practical level the referendum will mean that Nick Clegg and the Libs will be on Network (UK wide) television a lot more during this Assembly election than would normally be the case. Secondly there is the impact of the electoral communications and PPBs for the referendum. The Yes and No campaigns will each have a substantial amount of money to spend on direct mail. They will also be given PPB slots on all channels. The Yes campaign will probably use Clegg and that will mean that the Libs will have a high profile in April/May next year.
All in all the panic around their current poor polling levels might be over stated. The Libs may well have an AV boost next May and that could really help them to appear relevant and hold their seats at the Assembly despite their current appaling polling.
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Thursday, 26 August 2010
Yougov polls
The most recent yougov poll for Wales is available here http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-250810.pdf
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
The headline figures are
Constituency
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 22%
Liberal Democrat 10%
Others 6%
Regional
Labour 39%
Plaid Cymru 23%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Others 8%
If you want to compare with the previous data you can see that for July here and June here
The main news is that Labour has continued to keep its considerable gains since the General Election and that this has been made at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are still at about the same levels they were on in 2007.
The other news is the solidifying of support for a "Yes" vote in the Assembly powers referendum. 48% in favour 32% opposed. All three yougov polls have put these similar so the support is at least as good as it was in the run up to 1997. (Though that support disapeared on the day of the referendum).
The Western Mail put predicted numbers of AMs up on its article today, though I'm slightly dubious about their methodology. I'm planning to try and put up a new predictor for the Welsh Assembly election based roughly on the brilliant electoral calculus site. Will post with an update soon.
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