After hearing today's latest headlines I thought I'd have a look at Irish opinion polls again. There are two issues at stake here. The first is the Donegal South West By-election which takes place on Wednesday. The press association is calling this for Sinn Fein after a 500 person survey conducted by Red C (on Behalf of bookmakers Paddy Power). This is FF heartland so a bad loss here will be extremely traumatic for the party.
The same pollsters have also produced a poll for tomorrows papers with the latest Eire wide figures of
Fianna Fáil 17% (41.6% last time)
Fine Gael 33% (27.3%)
Labour 27% (10.1%)
Greens 3% (4.7%)
Sinn Féin 11% (6.9%)
If the election is held in the next few months we will see the end of an intire political class in Ireland as the largest party in the countries history is dumped into a miserable third place fight with Sinn Fein.
Interesting times...
Monday, 22 November 2010
Yougov Polls
I've added a page with the most up to date figures from Yougov. Hopefully they'll be of some use.
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Stats Rant continued
This is probably very boring to nearly everyone reading this but having another look at the employment statistics I noticed a great graph
This shows the 95% confidence levels for employment in Wales since Jul-Sep 2008.
Below I've coloured in the area of the graph that has always been within the confidence levels.
What this means is that it is well within the realms of probability that employment in Wales has been at a constant of anything between 67% and 68.5%. It is quite likely that it hasn't changed at all and if it has changed there is no way for us to know if it has gone up or down. These figures are based on relatively small samples (when you get down to the "regional" level) and there accuracy is not great.
During this time though the BBC has announced:
31,000 fewer Welsh jobs available
Unemployment in Wales falls to lowest level in a year
Unemployment total drops by 2,000 in Wales
Unemployment in Wales rises to 125,000
Unemployment falls only in Wales
Not one report mentions the massive innacuracy of the figures they are quoting and reports the "rise" or "fall" as being an accurate picture of what's happening in Wales.
I am not trying to have a go simply at thee beeb. On the whole thier news coverage of Wales is considerably better than anyone else. But surely they have someone with enough of a grasp of figures to do better reports than this. It is pretty lazy journalism.
This shows the 95% confidence levels for employment in Wales since Jul-Sep 2008.
Below I've coloured in the area of the graph that has always been within the confidence levels.
What this means is that it is well within the realms of probability that employment in Wales has been at a constant of anything between 67% and 68.5%. It is quite likely that it hasn't changed at all and if it has changed there is no way for us to know if it has gone up or down. These figures are based on relatively small samples (when you get down to the "regional" level) and there accuracy is not great.
During this time though the BBC has announced:
31,000 fewer Welsh jobs available
Unemployment in Wales falls to lowest level in a year
Unemployment total drops by 2,000 in Wales
Unemployment in Wales rises to 125,000
Unemployment falls only in Wales
Not one report mentions the massive innacuracy of the figures they are quoting and reports the "rise" or "fall" as being an accurate picture of what's happening in Wales.
I am not trying to have a go simply at thee beeb. On the whole thier news coverage of Wales is considerably better than anyone else. But surely they have someone with enough of a grasp of figures to do better reports than this. It is pretty lazy journalism.
Wednesday, 17 November 2010
Bad-Stats Rant
Just read Betsan Powys's blog and realised quite how misleading and annoying stats reporting is in Wales.
Betsan is looking at various politicians responses to the "drop" in unemployment. This seems to make sense. The figures clearly say that there are 12,000 less people unemployed in Wales. Everyone rejoice at these amazing cuts. Depending on your affiliation either the Con-Dem cuts are working or One Wales is delivering despite London's efforts.
What no one looks at is page 8 of the statistics which clearly say how accurate these figures are. The truth is that the change in Unemployment is anything between a drop of 35,000 or an increase of 10,000. And there's a 5% chance that the change could be better than a 35,000 drop or worse than a 10,000 increase.
Every month we get these same stories (Wales does worse than the rest of UK. First Minister welcomes Unemployment drop. Wales failing as unemployment rises). But the truth is that all of these stories are b******t. There based on figures that simply aren't accurate to the level there being reported. If even the BBC don't understand this then we have a serious problem.
Betsan is looking at various politicians responses to the "drop" in unemployment. This seems to make sense. The figures clearly say that there are 12,000 less people unemployed in Wales. Everyone rejoice at these amazing cuts. Depending on your affiliation either the Con-Dem cuts are working or One Wales is delivering despite London's efforts.
What no one looks at is page 8 of the statistics which clearly say how accurate these figures are. The truth is that the change in Unemployment is anything between a drop of 35,000 or an increase of 10,000. And there's a 5% chance that the change could be better than a 35,000 drop or worse than a 10,000 increase.
Every month we get these same stories (Wales does worse than the rest of UK. First Minister welcomes Unemployment drop. Wales failing as unemployment rises). But the truth is that all of these stories are b******t. There based on figures that simply aren't accurate to the level there being reported. If even the BBC don't understand this then we have a serious problem.
Across the Irish sea
Today's news on the Republic's financial woes led me to have a look what the polling figures are like there at the moment.
A quick search led to this poll by Millward Brown Lansdowne
The Topline figures are (2007 results in brackets)
Fianna Fail 22% (41.6%)
Fine Gael 30% (27.3%)
Labour 35% (10.1%)
Green Party 2% (4.7%)
Sinn Fein 4% (6.9%)
Independents/Others 8% (7%)
The main story is how the Labour party has gone from the also ran party to a clear lead. This could really be the end of Fianna Fail/Fine Gael dominance in Dublin. It also goes to show that in turbulent times party fortunes can change incredibly quickly.
A quick search led to this poll by Millward Brown Lansdowne
The Topline figures are (2007 results in brackets)
Fianna Fail 22% (41.6%)
Fine Gael 30% (27.3%)
Labour 35% (10.1%)
Green Party 2% (4.7%)
Sinn Fein 4% (6.9%)
Independents/Others 8% (7%)
The main story is how the Labour party has gone from the also ran party to a clear lead. This could really be the end of Fianna Fail/Fine Gael dominance in Dublin. It also goes to show that in turbulent times party fortunes can change incredibly quickly.
Yougov UK
Yougov has announced a 5% lead for Labour in the UK polls (C37%,Lab42%,LD10%). This is their biggest lead for Labour in a long time. When the last ITV Yougov poll of Wales was taken the Tories were still ahead at a UK level (C40%,L38%,LD12%). That means a change on the month of C-3%, L+4%, LD-2%.
Now these are nearly all within the margin of error, but Labour definitely seem to be dong better than they were a month ago. Labour could realistically be doing even better than the Constituency 44%, Regional 40% that they had last month.
Now these are nearly all within the margin of error, but Labour definitely seem to be dong better than they were a month ago. Labour could realistically be doing even better than the Constituency 44%, Regional 40% that they had last month.
Tuesday, 16 November 2010
Labour list poll of members
Ask and it shall be delivered...
Thanks to Ryan for providing a link to LabourList's survey of members.
Firstly a couple of health warnings, 1st I don't know how big this sample is and 2nd like with the Lib Dem Voice these people are only representative of hardcore activists.
But there are two or three interesting findings. The first is that a plurality (42% to 33%) will vote against AV. This is probably a hint that Labour will play absoloutely no part in the Yes campaign. Secondly these activists seem to favour a primary system. This is counterintuative as most activists tend to prefer a system where members pick candidates. Finally Peter Hain beats the magic "50% know who I am" test but only by 3%. The only Labour politician getting a negative rating is Shaun Woodwood. This is probably becuase Labour List are the most die-hard and tribalist Labour supporters and Shaun Woodwood is a famous defector. Never forget and never forgive...
Thanks to Ryan for providing a link to LabourList's survey of members.
Firstly a couple of health warnings, 1st I don't know how big this sample is and 2nd like with the Lib Dem Voice these people are only representative of hardcore activists.
But there are two or three interesting findings. The first is that a plurality (42% to 33%) will vote against AV. This is probably a hint that Labour will play absoloutely no part in the Yes campaign. Secondly these activists seem to favour a primary system. This is counterintuative as most activists tend to prefer a system where members pick candidates. Finally Peter Hain beats the magic "50% know who I am" test but only by 3%. The only Labour politician getting a negative rating is Shaun Woodwood. This is probably becuase Labour List are the most die-hard and tribalist Labour supporters and Shaun Woodwood is a famous defector. Never forget and never forgive...
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